1. TSMC Raises Capital Expenditure Budget
1.1. Strong demand for downstream wafer fab expansion
The global semiconductor market is growing against the trend, driving the demand for semiconductor specialized equipment: the semiconductor specialized equipment market is closely related to the prosperity of the semiconductor industry. Among them, chip manufacturing equipment is the field with the highest demand in the semiconductor specialized equipment industry, and the rapid development of downstream emerging industries is the biggest driving force of the semiconductor equipment industry.
The sales growth of semiconductor manufacturing equipment is strong, and the semiconductor industry chain is expected to shift to China. China will become the largest market for semiconductor equipment: according to SEMI statistics, global semiconductor equipment sales in 2020 will reach a historic high of 71.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 19%. From a regional perspective, Chinese Mainland became the world's largest semiconductor equipment market for the first time, with a year-on-year growth of 39%, reaching US $18.72 billion. Taiwan is the second largest equipment market, stabilizing at $17.15 billion in 2020 after showing strong growth in 2019.
Semiconductor equipment by region in 2019 and 2020 (in billions of US dollars)
Since the fourth quarter of 2020, there has been a severe shortage of chips, and it is expected to ease in 2022, with strong demand for expansion of wafer factories. The beginning of high demand in the semiconductor industry marks the high demand for new energy vehicles in the second half of 2020. The tight chip production capacity has gradually spread from automotive chips to consumer chips. The demand for wafer factory expansion is very strong. The main reasons for the lack of chips are as follows:
Before 2019, the demand for mobile phone chips far exceeded the demand for automotive chips. Many wafer fabs have transformed their automotive chip production lines into mobile phone chip production lines, leading to a significant decline in global automotive chip production capacity. After the second half of 2020, the demand for new energy vehicles increased, and car chip orders increased significantly, leaving downstream wafer factories completely unprepared.
The epidemic has had an impact on the overall production capacity of the semiconductor industry.
Due to tight wafer production capacity, downstream manufacturers are raising product prices: wafer shortage has become the norm, expanding from the 8-inch wafer field to the 12-inch field. At present, many chip foundries are operating at full capacity, but production capacity is still tight, making it difficult to meet the huge demand for OEM. Therefore, domestic and foreign media and industry chains predict that at least the global chip shortage caused by wafer shortages will not begin to alleviate until the second half of 2022. Downstream chip manufacturers are facing supply shortages due to wafer shortages, resulting in higher prices.
In response to the capacity gap, wafer manufacturers have expanded their production capacity: to address the capacity gap, wafer manufacturers have increased their production capacity. According to statistics, in 2020, a total of 12 wafer factories in mainland China were completed and put into operation, with a monthly increase in production capacity of 1.445 million wafers.
The expansion of wafer fab production capacity is expected to bring about a large demand for semiconductor equipment. As of April 2021, some wafer fab projects under construction in China have been counted, and the known investment scale is 95.72 billion yuan, which can provide a production capacity of 450000 to 550000 pieces per month. Semiconductor equipment is the largest investment for wafer fabs, accounting for approximately 75-80% of the total investment. It is expected that with the construction of wafer factory capacity expansion projects, there will be a great demand for semiconductor equipment.
1.2. The growth rate of downstream capital expenditure has increased, and the prosperity of semiconductor equipment continues to rise
The semiconductor equipment industry is greatly affected by downstream manufacturers' capital expenditures and has a certain cyclical nature. With the growth of downstream demand in recent years, the global semiconductor industry's capital expenditure will reach 73.2 billion US dollars in 2020, and the growth rate will shift from negative to positive.
In 2020, TSMC's capital expenditure reached $17.2 billion, and it will continue to expand in the coming years. According to TSMC's first quarter conference call, it is expected that capital expenditure in 2021 will increase to $30 billion, with a total capital expenditure of $1000 over the next three years (21-23 years). 100 million US dollars, of which 80% is used for advanced processes (3nm, 5nm, 7nm), 10% is used for advanced packaging and mask manufacturing, and 10% is used for special processes.
2. Sort out the semiconductor industry chain
2.1 Sorting out the semiconductor industry chain
Semiconductors refer to materials that have conductivity between conductors and insulators at room temperature and are widely used in various electronic products. Semiconductor products can be divided into four categories: integrated circuits, discrete devices, optoelectronic devices, and sensors. They are widely used in industries such as 5G communication, computers, consumer electronics, network communication, automotive electronics, and the Internet of Things.
Special equipment is the foundation of semiconductor production: the production processes of various semiconductors mainly include chip design, wafer manufacturing, packaging, and testing. Each production process needs to be designed and manufactured within the scope allowed by the corresponding special equipment technology. The technology of semiconductor specialized equipment is complex, and the technical parameters and operational stability of the equipment play a crucial role in the efficiency, quality, and yield of semiconductor production.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, the semiconductor industry chain involves supporting industries such as material equipment, chip design, wafer manufacturing, and packaging testing, as well as the terminal application industry of semiconductor products. Semiconductor products represented by integrated circuits are widely used, and the growth of downstream industry demand is the core driving force for the rapid development of the semiconductor industry.
2.2 Semiconductor equipment sorting
2.2.1 Investment ratio of each equipment
The semiconductor manufacturing process mainly includes three main links: silicon wafer manufacturing, wafer manufacturing, and packaging and testing. In mature markets, wafer manufacturing equipment accounts for about 80%, while testing, packaging, silicon wafer manufacturing, and other (such as mask manufacturing) equipment account for about 8%, 6%, 3%, and 3%, respectively.
Investment ratio of wafer processing equipment
The wafer manufacturing process is the most important asset in the production chain, and the investment in wafer manufacturing equipment accounts for approximately 80% of the total equipment investment. In the investment of wafer processing equipment, photolithography equipment accounts for up to 25%, followed by thin film deposition, accounting for 15%, and front-end testing equipment, etching equipment, and packaging equipment, accounting for 10%. Next are packaging and testing equipment (8%), cleaning equipment (7%), ion implantation equipment (3%), and crystal growth (2%).
2.2.2 Lithography machine
The basic principle of a lithography machine is to pass a high-energy laser through a marking plate, pass the circuit pattern on the marking plate through a condensing lens (projection lens), reduce the image by one sixteenth, and then image (image replication) on a pre coated photoresist layer on the chip.
ain manufacturers: photolithography manufacturers have high concentration ratio. Among the major companies in the world, ASML in the Netherlands can cover all levels of lithography machine products, leading the world in the production of high-end lithography machines. Other famous lithography machine manufacturers include Canon from Japan and Nikon from Japan.
2.2.3 Etching equipment
Basic principle: Etching is a process of selectively removing unwanted materials from the surface of a silicon wafer through chemical or physical methods, usually after development and inspection, in order to correctly replicate mask patterns on a glued silicon wafer.
There are two basic etching processes in semiconductor manufacturing, dry etching and wet etching, among which dry etching is the most important method for etching submicron sized devices.
Dry etching, also known as plasma etching, refers to the process of using gas chemical etchants to physically or chemically react with materials on silicon wafers that are not covered by photoresist (or both) to remove exposed surface materials.
Wet etching refers to the process of chemically removing surface materials from silicon wafers using liquid chemical reagents (such as acids, bases, solvents, etc.). Due to limitations in line width control and etching directionality, it is currently only used for etching certain layers or cleaning residues on silicon wafers.
Main production enterprises: There are many manufacturers of silicon etching machines, mainly including Japan's Fanlin Semiconductor, Applied Materials, and Tokyo Electronics; Chinese manufacturers include Zhongwei, Northern Huachuang, and others. Among them, the medium to micro dielectric etching machine has entered the 5-nanometer process.
2.2.4. Cleaning equipment
Cleaning equipment is a very important semiconductor device, which is crucial for ensuring chip production. It is widely used in various aspects of semiconductor production. Repeated cleaning is required in photolithography, etching, deposition, and other processes to avoid impurities affecting chip yield and performance.
According to the process, cleaning equipment can mainly be divided into wet cleaning equipment and dry cleaning equipment. Among them, the wet cleaning route accounts for over 90% of the cleaning steps in chip manufacturing. The working principle of wet cleaning equipment is as follows: using specific chemical solutions and deionized water to clean the wafer surface without damaging it, in order to remove particles, natural oxide layers, organic matter, metal contamination, and sacrificial layers during the wafer manufacturing process. Under the wet cleaning process, it can be divided into single-chip cleaning, tank cleaning, combined cleaning and batch rotary spray cleaning.
Main manufacturers: The global cleaning equipment market is highly concentrated, with SCREEN and TEL from Japan being leading companies. Other manufacturers include SEMES, LAMRESEARCH, as well as domestic manufacturers Shengmei Semiconductor, Zhichun Technology, and Northern Huachuang.
2.2.5. Ion implantation equipment
Basic principle: An ion implanter is a device that injects specific types of ions into specific materials with specific parameters and executes the core doping process. To make semiconductors into devices and change their electrical properties, impurities must be doped, and ion implantation machines are the standard equipment for performing the doping process.
Main manufacturers: The global IC ion implantation machine industry market is mainly dominated by applied materials, while other major manufacturers include Axocelis in the United States, Sumitomo Heavy Industries in Japan, and Zhongke Xin in China.
2.2.6. Adhesive developing equipment
Basic principle: Gluing and developing equipment is a type of gluing, baking, and developing equipment used in conjunction with a lithography machine during the lithography process, including a SpinCoater, a developer, and a SprayCoater. The gluing development equipment and lithography machine work online to form a supporting wafer processing and lithography production line, completing fine lithography processes.
Applicator: Apply photoresist to a clean and dry surface of the wafer. Fix the silicon wafer on a vacuum sliding table, drop liquid photoresist at the center of the wafer, and obtain a uniform photoresist coating through rotation.
Developer: Dissolve the exposed area of positive photoresist in a developer solution (negative photoresist is the unexposed area). Cool the silicon wafer to approximately 23 ° C (at the same temperature as the developer) and undergo a chemical reaction with the developer to dissolve the exposed area, forming the designed three-dimensional pattern.
Glue sprayer: Apply photoresist to wafers with irregular surfaces. By atomizing the photoresist into droplets, the photoresist droplets are blown out by nitrogen gas (N2) and sprayed onto the surface of the substrate or chip, and the hot plate carrying the chip evaporates the photoresist solvent through heating. The resin remains on the surface of the substrate or wafer, forming a relatively uniform photoresist coating.
Main production enterprise: In the current global adhesive development equipment market, Tokyo Electronics (TEL) in Japan is in a leading position, with a market share of 86%. In addition, companies such as SCREEN and SEMES also performed strongly. In the domestic adhesive coating and development equipment market, Xinyuan Micro, as the only local enterprise, has a market share of about 4%, TEL of about 91%, and SCREEN of about 5%.
2.2.7. Thin film deposition equipment
Basic principle: The working principle of thin film deposition technology is to achieve a series of atomic adsorption through physical or chemical methods. The adsorbed atoms diffuse on the surface diffusion and coalesce at an appropriate location, then gradually form a film and grow. At present, the film deposition equipment on the market is mainly divided into three types according to the process: ADL (atomic layer deposition), PVD (physical vacuum coating) and chemical vacuum coating (CVD).
ALD technology: A method (technique) that forms a deposition film by alternately feeding gas phase precursor pulses into a reactor and chemically adsorbing and reacting on the deposition substrate. When the current body reaches the surface of the sedimentary substrate, they undergo chemical adsorption and surface reactions on its surface. The atomic layer deposition reactor needs to be cleaned with inert gas between precursor pulses.
CVD technology: Introduce steam containing gaseous or liquid reactants and other gases required for the reaction into the reaction chamber, and undergo chemical reactions on the substrate surface to form a thin film.
VD technology: Under vacuum conditions, low voltage and high current arc discharge technology is used to evaporate the target material using gas discharge and ionize the evaporated material and gas. The acceleration of the electric field is used to evaporate the material and its reaction. The product deposits on the workpiece.
Main manufacturers: In the international thin film deposition equipment market, there are mainly manufacturers such as Applied Materials, Fanlin Semiconductor, TEL, etc. In the domestic market, the main companies are NAURA and Shenyang Tuojing. Among them, NAURA covers three product lines: CVD, ALD, and PVD. And Shenyang Tuojing mainly focuses on CVD and ALD. Both NAURA and Shenyang Tuojing have technology nodes that reach 14/28nm.
2.2.8. Equipment for testing the quantity before the channel
Basic principle: Pre detection is carried out based on optical principles and electron beam principles. It is used in the processing and manufacturing process of wafers. It is a physical and functional test used to check whether the processing parameters of the product after each step of the process have reached the level.
According to the testing purpose, front-end volume detection can be divided into measurement and detection. Measurement mainly involves measuring the film thickness, critical dimensions, registration accuracy, and other material properties of chips, such as film stress, doping concentration, and other material properties, to ensure that they meet the parameter design requirements; Detection is mainly used to identify and locate products. Surface impurity particle pollution, mechanical scratches, chip pattern defects, and other issues.
There are various types of frontline measurement equipment, including ellipsometers, four probes, thermal wave systems, coherent detection microscopes, optical microscopes, scanning electron microscopes, etc.
Main production enterprises: Due to extremely high technical and financial barriers, the frontline measurement equipment industry has strong requirements for the research and development capabilities of companies within the industry. At present, the domestic and international markets are highly concentrated, and the leading companies in the international market mainly include KLA in the United States, Hitachi in Japan, and ONTO in the United States.
2.2.9. Complete equipment
Basic principle: The packaging process is not: slicing, chip loading, bonding, plastic packaging, deflagration, electroplating, printing, rib cutting and forming, visual inspection, finished product testing, packaging and transportation. Correspondingly, packaging equipment includes cutting and thinning equipment, slicing machines, placement machines, curing equipment, welding/bonding equipment, plastic packaging, rib cutting equipment, etc.
Main production companies: In the field of packaging equipment production, representative companies in the global market include Shinkawa Company in Japan, Kawasaki Company, Bessie Company in the Netherlands, and Asia Pacific Company in Hong Kong, China. Other domestic packaging equipment manufacturers include CLP 45, Shenzhen Cuitao, Suzhou Akres, Dalian Jiafeng, Fushi Sanjia, etc.
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