In the context of the global economic downturn, the oversupply of memory semiconductors has intensified, but the supply of analog chips for automotive and industrial applications is still in short supply. These analog chips have a delivery time of up to 40 weeks, while memory inventory exceeds 20 weeks.
According to global consulting firm McKinsey on the 6th, the delivery time for semiconductors based on some traditional processes can reach up to 40 weeks.
Delivery time refers to the time it takes from ordering the product to delivery. Until the IT industry flourished in the first half of last year, the delivery time of semiconductors continued to increase. According to a survey by Susquehanna Financial Group, before the pandemic, the average semiconductor delivery time in January 2020 was 12.7 weeks, but it more than doubled in January last year to 25.7 weeks.
Afterwards, due to the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment, semiconductor delivery times began to decline, reaching as long as 27 weeks in the middle of last year. As the demand for semiconductors has decreased, the supply shortage has eased. As of the beginning of this year, the delivery time has been reduced to 24 weeks.
However, for some semiconductors, supply shortages continue.
McKinsey stated that the current delivery time for microcontrollers and sensors is 20 to 40 weeks, while other devices such as CPUs and DRAMs are in surplus.
In fact, the DRAM market is expected to oversupply in the first three quarters of 2023 due to the decrease in the production of consumer electronics, PCs and smartphones. The delivery time peaked at 22 weeks in mid-2022, but dropped to 19 weeks in early 2023.
McKinsey's analysis of semiconductor shortages since April 2022 shows that approximately 90% of the shortage driven demand is related to mature technologies. Analysis shows that about 75% of all demand driven by shortages involves integrated circuits, such as voltage regulators, accounting for about 66% of the demand, while discrete semiconductors, such as MOSFETs, account for about 10% of the demand.
From an application perspective, supply shortages are expected to be most prominent in the industrial and automotive sectors. This is because with the development of electric vehicles and next-generation power semiconductors, these applications have an increasing share in the entire semiconductor market. According to analysis, the share of the industrial and automotive sectors in the entire semiconductor market will increase from 10% and 8% in 2021 to 14% and 13% in 2030, respectively.
In terms of demand, it will remain volatile in the short term. We have seen some areas shift from shortages to oversupply in early 2023.
For example, the weak economic outlook and the decline in the production of consumer electronics, PCs and smartphones are causing excess inventory of DRAM, NAND and other memory chips. In contrast, considering that demand is expected to grow by 10% and 14% respectively (CAGR), industries such as industry and automobiles may face sustained supply constraints in the short and medium term. This tightening will reflect the macro environment and long-term trends, such as a shift towards pure electric vehicles.
Looking ahead, McKinsey's analysis shows that by 2030, the demand for semiconductors will grow at an annual rate of 6% to 7%. Most of the pressure will come from mature and functionally rich integrated circuits and discrete devices.
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